As the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has exceeded tens of millions, the battery swap mode, an important form of energy replenishment, has been mentioned again.

On January 21, the State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on the achievements of China's high-quality economic development. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out at the meeting that the new energy vehicle industry is facing new situations and challenges such as intensified domestic competition and high international trade barriers, and targeted measures should be taken to ensure the healthy development of the industry. Among the specific measures, it was mentioned that "guidance opinions on promoting the development of battery swapping models should be formulated, efforts should be made to promote the pilot of comprehensive electrification of vehicles in the public sector, and the promotion and application in key areas should be deepened."

In fact, in the field of battery swapping, giants in the automotive industry chain have already made a strong push.

Since 2024, CATL has been active in the field of battery swapping. At the end of November, Changan Automobile, CATL and CATL's subsidiary, Times Electric Service, signed a tripartite cooperation agreement on the battery swapping project. The first station of the tripartite cooperation chocolate battery swapping has been completed in Chongqing. In December, CATL held the Chocolate Battery Swap Ecological Conference. At the conference, CATL launched two standardized battery swapping batteries, 20# and 25#, and jointly launched the Chocolate Battery Swap Ecological Conference with nearly 100 partners.

According to the plan, CATL will build 1,000 battery swap stations across the country by 2025; the medium-term plan is to build 10,000 charging stations.

When it comes to battery swapping, NIO is definitely a name you can’t avoid. This new car-making force, which started promoting the battery swapping model in 2018, has built more than 4,000 battery swapping stations and is currently the only vehicle manufacturer that uses the battery swapping model as one of its main businesses.

As CATL makes full efforts in this field, NIO will face competition from giants on the one hand; on the other hand, the battery swap model ushers in an era of "many hands make light work", which is also a good thing for NIO.

From a competitive perspective, according to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries in 2024 will reach 246.01GWh, with CATL ranking first with a market share of 45.08%. BYD ranked second with a market share of 24.74%. The third-placed Zhongxinhang has a market share of only 6.68%. In other words, CATL still has a dominant position in the field of power batteries.

Against this background, CATL has released standardized batteries and can cooperate with car companies to significantly reduce the development costs of battery-swap models and greatly shorten the development cycle of new cars, which is expected to break the triangle dilemma of quality, performance and cost that cannot be achieved at the same time.

Comparing the technical specifications of the two companies' battery swap stations: the battery swap time of NIO's fourth-generation battery swap station is 144 seconds, while that of CATL is 100 seconds; NIO's three major brands, NIO, Ledao, and Firefly, have 5 battery specifications, while CATL's 20# and 25# have two specifications each, for a total of 4; most importantly, CATL is a legitimate battery supplier. In theory, all car companies' electric vehicles can be adapted to its batteries, while NIO can only serve the brands under its own system.

Based on these factors, CATL has more advantages than NIO in promoting battery swapping.

Previously, NIO widely invited Changan, Geely, Chery, JAC, GAC, FAW, Sinopec, CNOOC, Shell, State Grid, and China Southern Power Grid to cooperate in battery swapping, but there has been no substantial progress. NIO's battery swapping stations still only use its own brand of battery packs.

NIO battery swap station in Beijing, September 7, 2024. Electric cars replace batteries.

However, from the perspective of common prosperity, with CATL entering the market with its WeChat Moments, more users will know about the "battery swap" method of replenishing energy, which is a good thing for NIO.

As the standardization of battery swapping is promoted, the construction cost is expected to drop further. According to public data, NIO's first-generation battery swapping station in 2018 was equipped with 5 batteries per station, and the battery swapping time was about 8 minutes. A single station could serve 72 vehicles per day at full capacity, and the construction cost was 3 million yuan. By 2024, the fourth-generation battery swapping station will have a battery swapping speed of 2.5 minutes, automatically parked, and unmanned, and can serve 480 vehicles per day, with the construction cost reduced to 1.5 million yuan.

NIO has opened up the 0-1 momentum building stage for the battery swap model, and CATL and the power grid and oil companies that cooperate with it are expected to accelerate the development of the battery swap industry, forming a "co-opetition" relationship with NIO and ensuring the healthy development of the industry.