When a new car company radically shortened the frequency of announcing sales from once a month to once a week to highlight its own advantages, has it ever thought that one day it would be making wedding dresses for others?
Trends in the sales charts
The latest data shows that from February 10 to February 16, Xpeng Motors won the monthly sales championship for the first time in January and won the weekly championship for the first time with 8,100 vehicles.
Xpeng's rise to the top and Ideal's giving way prove that there will be no winner-takes-all situation in the smart electric vehicle race in the short term. This also means that no emerging car manufacturer can live in peace and stability without any pressure.
After all, judging from the single model list in January compiled by the media, Xiaomi SU7 was the new force model with the highest sales in January, and this week's weekly list also ranked third with 6,900 units sold. Of course, Xiaopeng MONA M03, P7+ and Ideal L6 are not bad either.
In 2025, a new force will be able to continue to stay at the table, and the solution seems to be hidden in this list of car models - either enter the mainstream category or the mainstream price range. In short, the larger the target population base, the greater the possibility of success.
For example, the Xiaopeng M03 is aimed at young people, and uses its ultimate cost-effectiveness and technological labels to promote itself as the "first car"; the Ideal L6 plays the role of a family travel nanny to the extreme.
He Songsong, partner of Ries Category Innovation Strategy Consulting China, recently mentioned in his article "Speed of Life and Death - Seven Predictions of Life and Death for China's Auto Market in 2025" that "electric vehicles live, fuel vehicles die", "intelligent driving lives, non-intelligent driving dies", "main channels live, small tributaries die", etc. The underlying logic is to tell you "don't go against the trend".
Regarding the trend, the first judgment is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to soar this year after exceeding 50% for several consecutive months last year. Looking at the whole year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2024 is 47.5%. Ries Consulting predicts that this figure will climb to between 60% and 65% this year.
Under this premise, it does not mean that making gasoline vehicles is meaningless. It can only be said that the success rate will be higher if efforts are made in the more mainstream new energy field.
Intelligent driving is the ticket to stay at the table
Taking the hottest intelligent driving track as an example, the electrical architecture of new energy vehicles has inherent advantages over fuel vehicles.
At the beginning of the new year, BYD’s “National Intelligent Driving” press conference caused a huge stir.
At the press conference, BYD announced that all its models will be equipped with the self-developed "Eye of God" high-end intelligent driving system, covering from the 70,000 yuan level of Seagull to the 1 million yuan level of Yangwang. This is the first time that intelligent driving technology has been brought to the mainstream market on a large scale, completely breaking the traditional pattern of "intelligent driving means high price".
On February 10, 2025, BYD held a press conference at its global headquarters in Shenzhen, announcing that all 21 models of the Dynasty and Ocean Network series will be upgraded to high-end intelligent driving.
Afterwards, Richard Yu, Huawei's executive director, chairman of the Device BG, and chairman of the Intelligent Automotive Solutions BU, published two articles, saying, "Intelligent driving, being usable and being usable and safe are completely different realms!" "It is inappropriate to confuse the concept of high-level intelligent driving and call the most basic entry-level intelligent driving assistance high-level intelligent driving!"
Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, said that "intelligent driving is not a show, practice makes perfect," and called on the industry to pay attention to the real needs and safety bottom line of high-frequency travel scenarios.
One is a "hotshot" and the other is a traditional auto giant. The huge response from both companies indicates that "intelligent driving" is one of the most core keywords in the current auto industry.
To become the "mainstream", intelligent driving must not be weak, and being average is not enough - either the price-performance ratio is maximized, or the technology ceiling is reached. BYD, which has achieved the ultimate in scale, obviously chooses the first option. In this regard, He Songsong believes that "referring to BYD's previous killer move of 'same price for oil and electricity', the release of the national intelligent driving strategy can be said to have started the countdown to the final. In the second half of intelligence, intelligent driving will become the ticket to stay on the table."
New power brands focusing on the luxury segment will face their darkest hour
If technology is to become mainstream, the price must not be too high to be popular. In the words of Toyota, the world's largest automaker, environmental protection technology can only contribute to the social environment if it is popularized.
Wang Songsong believes that the main channel market of 100,000-200,000 yuan and 200,000-300,000 yuan will become a battleground, and whoever wins the main channel will win the world. He pointed out that in 2025, whether it is the M8, Xiaomi YU7 or new cars launched by other brands, they are basically targeting this range.
The production and sales data of the China Automobile Association in 2024 confirms his point of view. The data shows that the market growth rate of 100,000-300,000 yuan is the fastest for both fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. The growth rate of the segment above 300,000 yuan slows down, and even shows negative growth.
Based on this trend, Wang Songsong judged that new power brands focusing on the luxury segment will usher in their darkest moment. For example, NIO has been slow to clarify its high-end strategy and may face a growth bottleneck. Since its establishment, NIO has not yet reached a scale of 300,000 vehicles. He pointed out that in order to maintain its high-end positioning, NIO did not hesitate to divide its forces and make the Ledao brand independent. In the context of the continuous decentralization of high-end intelligent technology, large companies use their scale advantages and technological advantages to promote technological equality, the NIO brand, which lacks a clear differentiated foundation, may face challenges.
Similarly, the article points out that the ultra-high-end series Zunjie may not last long. "Regardless of whether the electric era needs an 'electric Maybach', even the Maybach of the fuel era cannot escape the fate of being acquired by mainstream car companies. In the second half of the electric era, the few car companies that want to stay at the table by ultra-high-end products may end up with nothing."
In short, in the new era of smart electricity where "equal rights" are advocated everywhere and "luxury" is often "redefined", don't be stubborn and be the minority. It may be a more worthwhile thing to do than "I have a dream" to pragmatically cultivate the mainstream area.