The global new energy vehicle landscape is undergoing a historic reconstruction.
The wave of electrification from China is rushing to emerging markets such as Brazil and South Africa at an unprecedented speed. According to data provided by foreign media, the sales volume of Chinese auto brands in the Brazilian market will exceed 120,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year surge of 300%; the market share in South Africa has achieved a leapfrog growth of 30%.
At Taicang Port International Container Terminal, new energy vehicles to be exported to Brazil are ready to be loaded onto the ship.
Chinese car companies redefine cost-effectiveness
In Mexico City, the choice of pilot Florencio Perez Romero was symbolic.
After comparing many models, he finally abandoned traditional brands such as Toyota and Volkswagen and chose the Chinese brand SAIC MG RX5. What attracted him was not only the terminal price that was 15% lower than the same level of products, but also the technological configurations such as the 12.3-inch full LCD instrument, L2 intelligent driving system and panoramic skylight. "It's like getting a luxury car experience with an economical budget." Romero's evaluation reflects the winning code of Chinese automakers, which achieves a non-linear leap in product strength through the technological gap of the electrification platform.
This technological potential will create a chain reaction in the Latin American market.
According to the Chilean Automobile Association, Chinese brands have occupied 39.4% of the local market share in 2023, with brands such as Chery and Great Wall continuing to lead the sales list. Renzo Burotto, an economic historian at the University of Chile, pointed out: "Chinese automakers are rewriting the rules of the game. They are redefining the concept of cost-effectiveness with the technology premium of intelligent networking and battery management systems."
Industrial earthquake triggers systemic risks
However, behind the popularity of Chinese cars, the local manufacturing industries in these markets are also suffering. The latest report from the Brazilian Automobile Manufacturers Association (Anfavea) shows that the capacity utilization rate of its local car companies has fallen below the 60% warning line. The association's president, Marcio de Lima Leite, warned: "Every 1% increase in the market share of Chinese cars means the loss of 2,000 local jobs."
This anxiety is also evident in South Africa. Data from the Johannesburg Automotive Industry Research Institute shows that for every 5% increase in the market share of Chinese new energy vehicles, the profit margins of local supply chain companies will be compressed by 2.3 percentage points. Thapelo Molapo, secretary general of the South African Automobile Workers' Union, said: "We are standing at a crossroads. We can either embrace change or be swallowed by it."
Policy game creates a strategic opportunity period
Faced with industry shocks, governments are formulating sophisticated policies to balance the risks of losing market share to foreign cars.
The Brazilian government restarted the import tariff policy for electric vehicles in 2024. Setting a tiered tax rate before 2026 will not only win a transformation window for local automakers, but also reserve a channel for localized production of Chinese automakers.
This strategy of exchanging market for technology has begun to bear fruit. BYD's Camaçari Industrial Park, which has invested 3 billion reais, is about to start production, with a planned annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles; Great Wall Motors announced that it will invest more than 13 billion reais in Brazil to build smart factories in the next ten years.
South Africa has chosen a differentiated competitive path. Through a combination of policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles and special bonds for charging infrastructure, it strives to cultivate a local electrification ecosystem. The Industrial Policy Research Center of the University of Cape Town believes that this "technology grafting" strategy is expected to give birth to Africa's first new energy vehicle industry cluster.
Global supply chain reconstruction is underway
In this transformation, Chinese automakers have demonstrated amazing strategic depth. BYD South America President Alexandre Baldy revealed that its Brazilian factory will realize localized production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which can reduce costs by another 18%. Great Wall Motors plans to establish a regional R&D center in Johannesburg to develop customized intelligent chassis systems for African road conditions.
But concerns remain. Experts from the Department of Industrial Economics at the Federal University of Sao Paulo in Brazil warn that over-reliance on the Chinese supply chain could lead to a "technological lock-in" effect. Their latest model shows that if the local parts supply rate cannot be increased to 40% in the next five years, the Brazilian automotive industry will lose its ability to iterate key technologies.
What the local market is wary of is how to avoid falling into the historical cycle of "trading market for technology" behind the transfer of industry discourse power.
The overseas expansion of China's new energy vehicles is a reshuffle of the global industrial power structure. This change not only brings about product substitution, but also reshapes industry standards. This market change, which started with price competition and thrived on technological revolution, will test the ability of countries to balance open innovation and industrial security.
