After experiencing explosive growth, the growth rate of the pure electric vehicle market has begun to slow down, and the prospects for hybrid vehicles are more promising.
According to the electric vehicle market tracking report released by Counterpoint Research, global sales of passenger new energy vehicles (pure electric + plug-in hybrid) increased by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. Among them, pure electric vehicles grew moderately by 7% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicle sales grew strongly, up 46%.
Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe believes that peak sales of hybrid vehicles will come in 2029 or 2030. Honda intends to increase annual sales of hybrid vehicles from the current 850,000 to around 1.8 million.
Japanese giants that are trying to conquer the world with hybrid vehicles are not the only ones planning this. Automakers around the world are increasing their investment in hybrid models.
GM has delayed its transformation plan and started to reintroduce plug-in hybrid models that they had basically eliminated. Hyundai Motor is considering producing hybrid vehicles at its new $7.6 billion plant in Georgia, which was originally planned to produce only pure electric vehicles. Some European veteran automakers such as Jaguar Land Rover and BMW are also trying to sell more plug-in hybrid models.
Even ultra-luxury brands need to take advantage of the trend, with Porsche's legendary 911 set to get a hybrid version this summer.
As for the reason for doing so? It all depends on whether consumers have a unified rhetoric.
Hyundai Motor said, "Given that more and more consumers are unwilling to buy pure electric vehicles...", while Volkswagen said, "Chinese and American consumers want plug-in hybrid models more."
Data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows that after 13 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, the growth rate of pure electric vehicle sales in the United States has begun to slow down, with pure electric vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2024 only increasing by 7% year-on-year. In addition, a Gallup poll in April found that 44% of American adults said they were seriously considering or might consider buying an electric vehicle, which is significantly lower than 55% in 2023. At the same time, the proportion of people who do not plan to buy an electric vehicle has increased from 44% to 48%.
In China, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles is still higher than that of pure electric vehicles. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first four months of this year, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 84.5% year-on-year, while the growth rate of pure electric vehicles was 12.8%. At the same time, China is leading the global plug-in hybrid market with a share of up to 70%, and some of its own brands have formed cooperation with multinational automakers and started to export their own plug-in hybrid technology.
However, is the reason why consumers choose plug-in hybrids because of the plug-in hybrid technology itself, or simply because pure electric vehicles are not that good?
According to the Financial Times, drivers in places like Iceland and Finland are disappointed with the efficiency of pure electric vehicles in winter. Even in regions with four distinct seasons, some people are worried about battery safety, range, and the prospect of buying an electric car from a company that may not exist in three years.
Hybrid is a transition between oil and electricity, and it is also a stopgap measure for car companies to move from the oil era to electrification. Businessmen always judge which route is more worthwhile based on money. Compared with China, European and American car companies do not have a cost advantage in manufacturing electric vehicles, so the pure electric products they provide still cannot achieve a good balance between price and range. At the same time, due to the high sales of oil vehicles and shareholders' requirements for profitability, it is a wiser approach to increase investment in hybrids at this stage, which is far better than investing in pure electric vehicles that will only create financial black holes.
Japanese giants are using the huge profits generated by hybrid vehicles to finance future electric vehicle strategies. Honda and Toyota have achieved their best financial performance in history and set new records in profits thanks to the hot sales of hybrid vehicles and the impact of exchange rates. Toyota's operating profit exceeded 5 trillion yen for the first time; Honda's net profit increased by 70% year-on-year, exceeding 1 trillion yen for the first time. Toyota and Honda will use this money to transform vigorously and change the rules of the game. For this fiscal year, Honda's R&D budget expenditure reached a record high of 1.19 trillion yen; Toyota plans to invest 1.7 trillion yen in areas such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and software.
However, the plug-in hybrid that everyone is embracing has been criticized by Musk and questioned by environmentalists. The Brussels-based environmental lobby group Transport and Environment (T&E) pointed out that "plug-in hybrids are far more damaging to the climate than the official data shows, and their performance is not much better than that of internal combustion engines."
According to a set of emission data released by the European Commission, in the real world, the average fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid vehicles is 3.5 times that of the official brand's fuel consumption. One of the reasons that cannot be ignored is that consumers buy this plug-in hybrid car for various reasons. But they often choose to refuel rather than charge. And such behavior will not help reduce carbon emissions.
Some people even commented that after they bought a plug-in hybrid car, they were given a fuel card, and a small fuel card was enough to discourage them from charging.
