Perhaps we won't have to wait until 2025 for one of Li Xiang's predictions to come true.
On November 8, 2023, Li Xiang, the chairman of Li Auto, posted on Weibo stating that Chinese independent brands still committed to multi-gear PHEVs will transition to range-extended technology in the next one to two years. This judgment could be verified by 2025. At that time, Li Xiang also mentioned Geely and Great Wall, indicating that Geely's British taxi is indeed a range-extended vehicle, and that after observing the ratio of large battery hybrid users in Blue Mountain, General Wei would also agree with the range-extended approach.
On August 23, 2024, at the Beijing HICOOL 2024 Global Entrepreneurs Summit, the Li MEGA family technology flagship MPV.
Recently, car manufacturers have frequently launched range-extended models, seemingly validating Li Xiang's earlier predictions.
Recently, Zeekr executive Lin Jinwen revealed on Weibo that Zeekr will release a large SUV in 2025, featuring power options including pure electric and super hybrid, with the super hybrid supporting both range extension and plug-in hybrid modes.
In fact, Geely Holding Group President An Conghui indicated during the launch event of the Zeekr 001 that they do not rule out producing range-extended hybrid vehicles in the future.
Great Wall Motors has already "yielded." Liu Yanzhao, then general manager of Great Wall's WEY brand, initially stated that range extension is roughly equivalent to one-third hybrid connection and firmly rejected range-extended technology. However, on the newly launched Blue Mountain last week, WEY has incorporated a range-extended mode into its Hi4 power system.
While traditional car manufacturers embrace range-extended vehicles, it is noteworthy that this year, more new players originally focused on pure electric vehicles have concentrated their efforts on range-extended cars, unveiling a "reverse electrification" trend.
Recently, Avatar held a press conference for their Kunlun range-extender technology. Hu Chengtai, vice president of Avatar Technology, stated at the event: "We believe that good range extension means the experience is nearly indistinguishable from pure electric, with no mileage anxiety. Avatar is a premium新能源 brand that originated from pure electric vehicles, and since we're venturing into range extension, we must set pure electric experience as our standard." This reflects an honest approach, albeit verbal denial of softening their stance.
Furthermore, although Avatar is not the first to enter the range-extended market, it feels that once they do, they need to stand out rather than settle for mediocrity; they aim to "lead the generational leap in range-extended technology from traditional approaches to smart range extension." Marketing claims, let's just take them with a grain of salt.
Xiaomi Auto has also recently specified that its third model will feature range-extension technology. Moreover, both Zhiqi and Haobo have unveiled plans for their range-extended vehicles as well.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of XPeng Motors, has also started to soften his stance, recently stating in public that "there are many issues with range extension in the current high-speed experience. For XPeng, we need to think more about what the next generation of range extension will look like."
From a collective rejection to a widespread pivot, the range-extended technology sufficiently demonstrates that steadfastness in the face of evolving market trends often comes across as wishful thinking. There is no absolute best technology, only what is most suitable.
Market data shows that in July this year, the wholesale share of new energy vehicles was as follows: pure electric at 53%, narrow-sense plug-in hybrids at 34%, and range-extended vehicles at 13%. In contrast, the same period last year saw pure electric at 68%, narrow-sense plug-in hybrids at 25%, and range-extended vehicles at 8%. This indicates that the sales of pure electric vehicles are slowing, while the market share of plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles is rising—particularly, the growth rate of range-extended vehicles exceeds that of plug-ins.
The success of plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles can be attributed largely to their cost-efficiency. This year's price competition has intensified, and compared to pure electric vehicles, range extenders do not require large battery packs, saving a significant amount of costs.
From a technical perspective, compared to multi-gear DHT and other plug-in hybrid technologies, the control logic for range extension is simpler, allowing for saved effort in the design phase of the power system. In the past fuel vehicles, the torque request from the engine ECU was almost directly tied to the throttle pedal signal, while now, the processing of acceleration pedal signals for range extenders or other hybrid engines has been transferred to the VCU (Vehicle Control Unit) due to the presence of multiple power sources. Once the driver hits the accelerator, the VCU must determine whether to use fuel, electricity, or both.
For range-extended vehicles, the logic is not complex, as the engine doesn't provide power—it only supplies energy. Therefore, the vehicle's power response only needs to focus on the motor's speed. In contrast, systems like multi-gear DHT employ an integrated control logic requiring the monitoring and calculation of input-output models from multiple power sources, including engines and motors, during different operating modes, making control significantly more complicated.
In today's fast-paced environment, where the quick devour the slow, car manufacturers have shifted from developing new vehicles on a "yearly" basis to a "monthly" cadence. Instead of spending time honing complex control logic, it may be more effective to directly employ range extension to address various issues. While it isn't the most efficient driving method, it provides a high cost-performance ratio. The saved human and material resources can be utilized in areas that enhance consumer appeal, like "refrigerators, TVs, and sofas."
The evaluation of a car's quality has never adhered to a single standard. Li Auto emphasizes a comfortable cabin without a relentless pursuit of power performance, making range extension the right choice. Conversely, some users still require efficient acceleration for overtaking at high speeds, which makes a multi-gear DHT evidently more appropriate. However, under the dual pressures of consumer downgrading and intense market competition, it appears that range-extended vehicles currently score the highest when considering both cost and experience.
